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Home  >  Transactions of NAMP VOL 14

21. STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS IN NIGERIA by Fantola J.O., Adebiyi A.A. and Ganiyu K.A. Volume 14, (January - March, 2021 Issue)
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STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS IN NIGERIA

Fantola J.O.1, Adebiyi A.A.2 and Ganiyu K.A.1

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The Polytechnic, Ibadan, Nigeria

Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

The ongoing Corona Virus Disease (COVID – 19) pandemic, which was first detected in Wuhan; China in December 2019, is a disease from strain of Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. It is spreading worldwide, and Nigeria like other African countries, has been affected. This virus has presented the greatest world health challenges and it has had adverse effects on the world economic. Currently, the most important priority of the public health practitioners is the prevention and control of the infection, hence the need to know the behavioural pattern and prediction of COVID-19, which is the sole aim of this research work, is important to them.

In this research, four families of the Generalized Gamma Distributions were used to model the reported daily cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The reported data, which was downloaded from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus  spanned through the period of five months (24 March 2020 to 23 August 2020). The result shows that the Weibull distribution is the best fit for the data. The shape parameter is greater than one, meaning the hazard rate of this disease is increasing, the time plot of the reported cases support this view, but we can expect to pass the peak of the disease if proper measures is in place. According to the mean and median of the best fitted distribution, the daily cases is at increasing rate, but we can expect to pass the peak of the disease if proper preventive measures is taken by both the policy makers and the public at large.

Keywords: Corona Virus, Distribution, Weibull, Epidemiology, Nigeria

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