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Home  >  Transactions of NAMP VOL.12

15. TREND ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FOR DAILY NEW CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES IN NIGERIA by S. Suleiman1 and A. B. Zoramawa Volume 12, (July – Sept., 2020 Issue)
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TREND ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FOR DAILY NEW CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES IN NIGERIA

S. Suleiman1 and A. B. Zoramawa2

Department of statistics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto

Abstract

The current outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic across the world, and with an alarming increasing number of cases in Nigeria, government at all levels need to take urgent action to halt the transmission of the deadly virus. Nigeria was first Sub Saharan country to record a case of COVID-19 on 27th February, 2020 after an Italian citizen tested positive for the virus. Two weeks after the index case, COVID-19 cases began relatively increase day by day. In this research, trend of the COVID 19 new cases in Nigeria were analyzed. Linear, Quadratic, Exponential growth and S-curve trend models were employed to predict COVID 19 new cases in Nigeria. The results show COVID 19 new cases in Nigeria are time dependent and models predict it very well in relation time. Forecast evaluation indices indicate that COVID 19 new cases in Nigeria is best predicted by quadratic trend model. 

Keywords: COVID 19, Pandemic, time series, trend, prediction 

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