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Home  >  Transactions of NAMP VOL.11

4. STOCHASTIC MODELLING OF COVID-19 CLOSED CASES IN NIGERIA by Ekum M.I., Akinmoladun O.M. and Ogunsanya A.S. Trans Vol 11 NAMP Jan-June 2020
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Ekum M.I., Akinmoladun O.M. and Ogunsanya A.S.

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lagos State Polytechnic, Ikorodu, Lagos, Nigeria


COVID-19 infected individuals are increasing in an alarming rate in Nigeria. Just in 80 days, Nigeria has recorded over 5,000 cases. The trend shows that in the next 80 days, this figure might triple if nothing is done to flattened the curve. Developing a stochastic model is very important in studying the trend and pattern of the spread of this novel virus. In this research, a stochastic model called the Gamma-Power function distribution is developed using the T-Power{Y} framework. Many properties of the stochastic model were investigated. The maximum likelihood estimation method was used to estimate the parameters of the proposed distribution and numerical investigation of the parameters which are not in closed form were developed. Simulation study was carried out to test the consistency of the parameter estimates. The pro-posed distribution was applied to two COVID-19 continuous data collected from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and the results were compared with existing models. The results showed that the proposed distribution performed favourably when compared with other models.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, Closed cases, Exponential family; Gamma-power function distribution, Stochastic model