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18. BETA- SKEWED LAPLACE DISTRIBUTION AND ITS APPLICATION IN MODELLING SOME CLIMATIC PARAMETERS by T. K. Samson and S. Agboola Volume 51 (May, 2019 Issue)
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BETA- SKEWED LAPLACE DISTRIBUTION AND ITS APPLICATION IN MODELLING SOME CLIMATIC PARAMETERS

T. K. Samson and S. Agboola

Department of Statistics, University of Calabar, Cross River State, Nigeria

Department of Statistics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. Kaduna State, Nigeria.

Abstract

Climate parameters affect virtually every aspect of human endavours ranging from food availability, clothing, housing and general well being of humans. Despite this not much has been done in the area of developing a probabilistic distribution for these parameters. This study therefore proposed a new distribution “Beta Skewed Laplace Distribution (BSLD)” where additional 2 shape parameters are injected into the existing 3- parameters Skewed Laplace Distribution (SLD) to make it a 5 parameters distribution. Some of the statistical properties of the proposed distribution were derived and estimation of parameters for the proposed distribution was by the maximum likelihood method. The flexibility of the proposed distribution over the SLD and Skewed Generalized t- Distribution (SGTD) with the same parameters as the proposed distribution is illustrated by applying it to monthly temperature, rainfall, sunshine and wind speed in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria between 2001-2017. The data was obtained from Nigerian Metrological Agency (NIMET). The log- likelihood function and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were used as model performance criteria and results were generated using BFGS optimization routine in R. The result shows that the BSLD gave better fit than SLD and SGT distributions. Hence, the use of this proposed distribution is recommended as it will help in better understanding of these parameters which would result in food sufficiency and better wellbeing and thus ameliorate the possible devastating effect of these climatic parameters.

Keywords: Climatic parameters, Beta Skewed Laplace distribution, maximum likelihood method.

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