MODELLING THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PRODUCTION OF MAIZE: A CASE STUDY OF OSUN STATE

Taiwo A. Ojurongbe and Kehinde A. Bashiru

Department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences College of Science, Engineering and Technology, Osun State University, P.M.B. 4494, Osogbo, Nigeria.

Abstract

This study is based on the argument that climate change resulted from changes in climate elements such as rainfall. The effect of climate changes such as rainfall, among other factors on maize crop production, a case study of Osun state, Nigeria was investigated. Data on aggregate maize production, total area under cultivation with maize production and annual rainfall in Osun state within the period of 2006 to 2015 were collected from Osun State Development Agricultural Program (OSSADEP)and analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results revealed that annual rainfall contribution was low and was not significant for maize production in the study area due to climate change. We concluded that climate change has significantly altered the pattern of rainfall in the study area in such a way as to affect maize production. It is recommended among other things that extension agents should liaise with the Nigeria Meteorological Agency to advice farmers in the state to stabilize their maize crop calendar in accordance with the weather forecast for a better harvest.

Keywords: Rainfall, climate change, cultivation, multiple regression