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Home  >  Volume 46 (May, 2018)

22. APPLICATION OF MARKOV MODEL IN CONTINUOUS TIME FOR THE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF OPTIMAL POWER DISTRIBUTION IN NIGER STATE by Mohammed Abdullahi1, Abubakar U. Y. and Mohammed T. G. Volume 46 (May, 2018 Issue), pp169 –176
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APPLICATION OF MARKOV MODEL IN CONTINUOUS TIME FOR THE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF OPTIMAL POWER DISTRIBUTION IN NIGER STATE

Mohammed Abdullahi, Abubakar U. Y. and Mohammed T. G.

Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology Minna, Nigeria

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Niger State Polytechnic, Zungeru

Abstract

A four state Markov model in continuous time was used to study the optimal power distribution in Niger State. A non-stationary transition probability was assumed for the process. The result shows that     and     present the probabilities of obtaining optimal power distribution of over 150,000MW per month when the present distribution is between 130,000MW and to below 150,000MW, 110,000MW to less than130,000MW and less than 110,000MW per month respectively. These optimal probabilities have the higher value of about 0.368, 0.382 and 0.383 in 14 months. The result also shows that , provides the optimal probabilities (almost unity) of power distribution of over 150,000MW per month. It however declined sharply to probability of less than 0.2 in about 5 to 7 months and started to rise again gradually. Markov process model could be used as a predictive tool for determining the power distribution in Niger state. These predictions might be used for the management of (NCC) for effective distribution of megawatts. 

Keywords:Markov Chain, Transition probability, Non-stationary, Power Distribution, Niger State, Continuous Time  

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