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Home  >  Transasctions of NAMP VOL3

13. Analysis of a Mathematical Model of Ebola Virus Disease with Contact Tracing and Quarantine Measures by C.E. Madubueze, A.R. Kimbir, E.S. Onah and T. Aboiyar Transactions of NAMP Vol 3, (Jan, 2017), pp 75 – 82
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Currently there is no approved vaccine or medicine for the treatment of EVD. Thus, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as contact tracing and quarantine are used to control the spread of disease. Contact tracing and quarantine promptly detect new Ebola virus infected persons early before they develop symptoms. These help to prevent secondary transmission of the virus in the community. Several mathematical models have investigated the impact of different interventions on the dynamics of EVD, but none have considered the combined effect of contact tracing and quarantine. Hence, this study considered a deterministic model of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with contact tracing and quarantine as control measures in the dynamics of EVD. The effective reproduction number that governs the spread of the disease is computed using the next generation method.  The model is further analyzed for the existence of the disease-free equilibrium state. This is shown to be locally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number is less than one and unstable when it is greater than one. Finally, numerical simulation of the model is carried out to determine the impact of model parameters on the dynamics of EVD. Based on the results obtained, it is concluded that EVD can be eradicated when contact tracing and quarantine are implemented together.

Keywords: Ebola virus disease, contact tracing, quarantine, disease free equilibrium, effective reproduction number.