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Home  >  Volume 38

43. Flood Frequency Analysis of River Niger at Agenebode, Edo State, Nigeria Using Probability Distributions by Ehiorobo J.O. and Akpejiori I.J Volume 38, (November, 2016), pp 309 – 318
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Abstract

Flooding is a major environmental hazard that often leads to loss of lives and properties. Although flooding cannot be prevented, measures can be taken to avoid the damaging effect of flood and food disaster. This can be done by carrying out flood prediction based on some given return period.

Agenebode, a city by the bank of the River Niger in Edo state, suffered severe flooding in 2012 with attendant loss of lives and properties. This study seeks to find the best probability distribution for flood mitigation in Agenebode, Edo state, Nigeria which is located along the banks of the River Niger and at risk of periodic flooding. Flood frequency analysis was conducted on discharge data from 1960-2006 acquired from the River Niger and were subjected to three probability distributions namely: Log- Normal, Log- Pearson Type-III and Gumbel Extreme value Distributions. Of the three distributions, Log – normal was found to be the most suitable for the area as compared to the other two distributions as it gave larger values of discharge for longer return periods. Log-Pearson Type III is suitable for smaller design periods but does not give economic design values for flood mitigation strategies.

From the study, it can be conclude that estimate of flood discharges from log-Normal distribution is more reliable for flood hazard mitigation in the study area.

Keywords: Flood, Probability distributions, Return Periods, Discharges, Flood Frequency Analysis

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