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Home  >  Volume 31 (July 2015)

Stochastic Analysis of Heterosexual Transmission of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in The Presence of Treatment by Bashiru K.A and Ojurongbe T.A (pages 115 -122)
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HIV/AIDS epidemic proves to be a deadly disease until recently when the treatment is being introduced. This paper addresses the scope of HIV/AIDS with respect to Heterosexual mode of transmission extensively with the introduction of treatment. The model was develop by solving the Chapman -  Kolmogorov differential equation using birth – death process. Solving the model using probability Generating Functions (PGF) approach, the expectations and variance of probability distribution resulting from the model were obtained for  Susceptible (S) persons, Infected (I) persons ,  Treatment (T) and AIDS (A) cases. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to investigate the influence of key parameters of the model on the spread of the disease.

Keywords: Probability Generating Function, HIV Transmission, Stochastic compartmental model, Heterosexual Transmission and Treatment.