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Home  >  Volume 28. No.2 (Nov. 2014)

6. Application of Chaos Theory in the Analysis of some Peak Power Load Data Recorded in Nigeria by Tikyaa E.V., Ekundayo K. R. and Tyovenda A.A. - Volume28, No. 2, (November, 2014), pp 43 – 48
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Abstract
This paper employs chaos theory in analyzing peak power load data obtained
from the National Control Centre of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) in Oshogbo. Qualitative nonlinear analysis of the data was carried out using load time series, phase portraits and Power spectrum while quantitative analysis was carried out using Lyapunov exponents and coefficient of variation. The results obtained show that the peak power load for 2012 exhibits chaotic behavior having an embedding dimension of 5, Lyapunov exponent of 0.00813/day and coefficient of variation of 0.106 while that of 2011 exhibits a quasi periodic behavior (near transition to chaos) with an embedding dimension of 4, Lyapunov exponent of 0.00/day and coefficient of variation of 0.0854. An error doubling time (predic
tability) of 123.02 days was obtained for the power load data of 2012. This implies that only a short-term prediction (within days not years) of the peak power load across Nigeria will yield accurate results in the nearest future.

Keywords:
Peak power load, Phase portraits, Power spectrum,Lyapunov exponents.

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