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Home  >  Volume 27 (July 2014)

27. A Time Series Analysis on Infant Killer Diseases: A Case Study of Anambra State University Teaching Hospital by NWOSU C. A.Volume27, (July, 2014), pp215 – 226
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The study investigated on the four(4) out of the six(6) infant killer diseases, Malaria, measles, Poliomylitis and tuberculosis between the year 2003-2012, which attack infant after their birth in the communities, thereby resulting to their untimely death. The least square method of the time series has been applied to analyse the prevalence rate of the killer diseases, the trend value of the disease and the highest rate prevalence and seasonal index of each disease. From the analysis the following models were obtained for the four(4) killer diseases: Malaria - Y = 319.75 - 9.142t, Measles - Yt = 1.525 - 0.0397t, Poliomylitis - Ý = 1.525 - 0.0397t and tuberculosis - Ý = 24.725 - 0.06921 The result obtained from these models indicated a tremendous decrease of these infant killer diseases as the year increases due to the national programme on immunization(NPI) mounted by the Federal Ministry of Health, for the control and management of the disease. We sincerely hope that some of these diseases will be completely wiped out of the programme on immunization continues the way it is going.

    Keywords: Malaria, Measles, Poliomylitis, Tuberculosis, Least Square Method, Time series.