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Home  >  Volume 27 (July 2014)

26. Comparison of Different Methods for Smoothing and Analyzing Time Series Data by A. H. Bello. Volume27, (July, 2014), pp209 – 214
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Abstract

This study is on time series analysis on quarterly sales of consumable goods at GlaxoSmithKline Nigeria plc. The data was collected from the consumer sales department in GSK and the aim is to investigate the trends, seasonal variations and forecast for the company. The objectives are toinvestigate the sales performance of the GlaxoSmithKline Nigeria plc. Ilupeju, Lagos State.. The methodology employed the use of least squares method, moving average method and the exponential smoothing method and from each of the method used, we were able to deduce that GSK sales are high during the first quarter of the year (i.e. period prior to winter) and decline drastically during the third quarter of the year (i.e. period prior to summer). A comparison was made among these methods and it was found that the exponential smoothing method has the least sum of squares residuals which makes it the best model created for the company.

    
    Keywords: Time series, seasonal variation, least squares, moving averages


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