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Home  >  Volume 27 (July 2014)

24. Population Prediction Modelling with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) Model by T .O. Olatayo, A. I. Taiwo and T.A. Lasisi.Volume27, (July, 2014), pp 189 – 200
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Abstract

Human development and improvement in quality of life in a nation depend on proper planning based on population at a time and its future values, since the tremendous increase in population is a major issue in Nigeria and worldwide. Then, this research focused on the modelling of Nigeria population by obtaining forecast values.
The Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology was used for analysing and forecasting Nigeria population.
From the result obtained, Nigerian population series was stationary at the first difference. The identification stage of the model building suggests three models for Nigeria population forecast, but ARIMA(5,2,0) was validated in estimation stage using AIC,SC and MSE. The model was diagnosed and results shows the model is adequate and parsimonious to forecast Nigerian population. ARIMA(5,2,0) model was then used to obtain the in-sample and out- sample forecast for the next 12 years. The in-sample forecast exhibits a very close structure and pattern of the original Nigerian population series. The out-sample forecast shows a rapid growth in the Nigerian population yearly and if the trend of current growth persists, the population would be approximately 209.64 million by 2025.
In conclusion, the model obtained and used to forecast Nigerian population is adequate and parsimonious since it reflects a close pattern to the projected population of Nigeria by different bureaus.

    
    Keywords: Population, ARIMA Model, Forecasting, Model Building and Human Development


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