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Home  >  Volume 22 (2012)

Modelling and Forecasting Prevalence of Malaria Parasite Infection among Pregnant Women in Benin City, South-South Nigeria (The ARIMA Approach) by Osabuohien-Irabor Osarumwense and Edokpa Idemudia W. Volume 22 (November, 2012), pp 355 – 362
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This paper aim to fit a univariate time series model to the average sample data of malaria parasite among pregnant women in Benin City, so as to determine it prevalence. The Box-Jenkins Autoregressive integrated moving Average(ARIMA) model methodology estimated and the fitted ARIMA model is used during the period January 2007 to July 2012 monthly data. The empirical study revealed that the model for this study is ARIMA(0,1,2). The forecasts from August 2012 to July 2014 was made based on the chosen model. These forecast would be helpful for policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future prevalence of malaria infection among pregnant women in Benin City and adopting appropriate measure.

Keywords: ARIMA, Autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation, Malaria, infection, Augmented dickey-Fuller Test, KPSS, modified Ljung-Box test.