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Home  >  Volume 21 (2012)

Time Series Forecasting by Fourier Series Analysis (FSA): Constant Level Versus Trend Line Seasonal – Effects Models by Okafor U. L. and Oladejo M. O. Volume 21 (July, 2012), pp 207 - 218
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In this paper, the Fourier series Models of seasonal data are derived for forecasting outputs that have constant-level, linear trend line and 12th difference trend-line seasonal-effects. A practical case of the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA) Kaduna cadet’s sick parade showed that results obtained from the 12th difference trend line and linear trend linear seasonal- effect models were reasonably better than the constant or mean model in terms of forecast values and relative accuracies of Mean absolute Deviation (MAD), Sum of squares of errors (SSE) 

Keywords: Fourier series analysis, forecasting, sick-parade, seasonal-effects, amplitudes, fitted values, fitted errors.